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I bought $1k of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018. August update, -71%, special NEM EDITION!!

I bought $1k of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018. August update, -71%, special NEM EDITION!!

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2018 - Month 32 (-71%)
See the full blog post with all the tables here.
tl;dr:
  • purchased $100 of each of Top Ten Cryptos in Jan. 2018, haven't sold or traded, repeated in 2019 and 2020, update y'all monthly. Learn more about the history and rules of the Experiments here.
  • August - solid month for the 2018 Top Ten, led by, ladies and gentlemen (or lady singular, there in the back row, I see you) NEM!!!!! Up over +200% in August.
  • Overall - BTC still way ahead and approaching break-even point, ETH gaining ground, alone in the middle. NEM(!!!) finally escapes last place replaced by DASH.
  • Over three years, cryptos outperforming S&P if I'd taken a similar approach.

Month Thirty Two – Down 71%

2018 Top Ten Summary
August was not quite as strong as all-green July, but still a solid month for the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment. The gains were led by (I hope you’re sitting down for this one) (drum roll please) (you’re not going to believe this): NEM(!) which finished the month up over +200%. Really!

Question of the month:

The US Justice Department announced in August that it had seized cryptocurrency from terror groups in the Middle East. How much did they confiscate?

A) $2 million B) $4 million C) $8 million D) $32 million
Scroll down for the answer.

Ranking and August Winners and Losers

Rank since January 2018
Lots of movement this month: all but three cryptos moved positions in August and all but one (NEM!) in the wrong direction. Despite gaining in value, Dash had the biggest slide, down four in the rankings from #24 to #28. ADA fell three and has dropped back out of the Top Ten. XRP, Bitcoin Cash, IOTA, and Stellar each lost one place in the rankings. The lone exception is a big one: XEM(!) climbed an unprecedented 9 spots in August. The last time NEM was in the Top Twenty was May 2019.
After thirty-two months, 50% of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out. NEM, ADA, Dash, IOTA, and Stellar have been replaced by Binance Coin, Tether, BSV, CRO, and most recently, LINK.
August WinnersDon’t call it a comeback, NEM‘s been here for years. Up over +200% in August, NEM crushed the rest of the field. A distant second place was ETH, up +32% on the month.
August Losers – Down -13%, ADA was the worst performing crypto of the month, followed by Bitcoin Cash, down -9%.
For the overly competitive, below is a tally of the winners of the first 32 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment. Bitcoin still has the most monthly wins (7). Cardano is a close second with 6 monthly wins. Despite its blockbuster August, NEM has the most monthly losses with 6. Every crypto has at least one monthly win and Bitcoin is unique as the only cryptocurrency that hasn’t lost a month in the 2.5+ years of the Experiment.
Ws and Ls

Overall update – BTC in the lead and inching towards break-even point, followed by second place ETH. NEM escapes last place, replaced by Dash.

Although BTC didn’t make any major moves this month, it continued to slowly but surely approach its break-even point. It is down about -10% since my purchase in January 2018. The initial investment of $100 thirty-two months ago is now worth about $90.
Ethereum is all alone in second place. It had a strong August, it picked up a lot of ground, but is still down -35% since January 2018.
The big story this month is at the bottom: NEM(!) gained +200% in August, crushing its counterparts and leaping out of last place, where it was so comfortable for so, so long. Although still down -83% over the life of the experiment, it moved from 10th place to 6th place in just one month. The new king of the basement is Dash, down -91%. The initial $100 invested in Dash 32 months ago is now worth $8.50.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The crypto market added nearly $43B in August. The last time we saw a similar level in terms of overall crypto market cap was way back in the fifth month of the 2018 Top Ten Experiment: May 2018.

Bitcoin dominance:

After being stuck in the mid-60s for most of 2020, BitDom dropped significantly this month, down to 57%. For context, the last time BitDom was this low was back in June 2019.
For some more context: since the beginning of the experiment, the range of Bitcoin dominance has been quite wide: we saw a high of 70% BitDom in September 2019 and a low of 33% BitDom in February 2018.

Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2018:

The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio gained about $17 this month. If I cashed out today, the $1000 initial investment would return about $287, down -71% from January 2018.
While -71% isn’t something to brag about, the monthly trend is encouraging. Here, take a look at the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month, for some context:
2018 Top Ten Monthly ROI Summary
So, -71% from a bottom of -88% is moving in the right direction.
Or that’s what I tell myself as I cry myself to sleep nightly.
Hopefully the next stop will be in the -60% range, a level this experiment hasn’t seen in years.
So the Top Ten Cryptos of 2018 are down -71%. What about the 2019 and 2020 Top Tens? Let’s take a look:
So overall? Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $‭3,937‬ ($287+ $1,825 +$1,825).
That’s up about +31% for the three combined portfolios, compared to +23% last month. This marks the highest ROI of the three combined portfolios since I added the metric this year.
Here’s a table to help visualize:
Combined ROI on $3k over three years
A +31% gain by investing $1k on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st for three straight years, not bad. But surely you’d do better if you invested only in one crypto, right? Depends on your choice. Let’s take a look:

Three year club: shoulda gone with ETH
Only five cryptos have remained in the Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC. Knowing what we know now, which one would have been best to go all in on, at least at this point in the Experiment? Ethereum, easily: the initial $3k would be up +160%, worth over $7800 today. The worst performing at this point is XRP, down -17%.

Comparison to S&P 500:

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. Defying global gloom, the S&P 500 reached an all time high in August and is up +31% since the beginning of the Experiment. The initial $1k investment into crypto on January 1st, 2018 would have been worth about $1310 had it been redirected to the S&P.
But what if I took the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments? Here are the numbers:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$310
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$400
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: +$90
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,800.
That is up over+27% since January 2018, compared to a +31% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
That’s a 4% swing in favor of the Top Ten Crypto Portfolios! As you’ll see in the table below, this is only the second time since I started recording this metric that crypto has outperformed the S&P had I taken a similar investment approach:

3 x $1k crypto vs. S&P
This is a big turnaround from the 22% difference in favor of the S&P just two months ago.
Although it’s fun to see crypto is in the lead, I’ll leave it to you to decide whether the heart condition you may develop by being in the cryptosphere is worth that +4% edge…

Conclusion:

August was a bit mixed compared to July, but still a very solid month for the 2018 Top Ten. Some interesting developments this month: Bitcoin is now within 10% of the price I paid on January 1st, 2018. ETH had solid gains and NEM(!) had a crazy month, tripling in value and finally climbing out of the basement. At the same time, traditional markets are doing well too: the S&P reached an all time high in August. It will be interesting to see how both markets perform during the final third of a very crazy year.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.

And the Answer is…

A) $2 million
According to federal prosecutors, the US Justice Department seized $2 million worth of cryptocurrency from terror groups in the Middle East including ISIS, al Qaeda, and the al Qassam Brigades.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

NFT hidden gem with HUGE partners and advisors already signed

A NFT (non-fungible token) blockchain project called VIMWorld (www.VIMWorld.com) will allow for all types of gaming including older Board games and newer AAA games to store game IP in a NFT. The NFT's are called VIMS which are linked into the ecosystem VIMWorld, and the token used is called EHrT (Eight Hours Token) currently available on Bitrue (rumor - new exchange listing is imminent, maybe Binance). Game developers and Partners can quickly utilize the NFT VIM and integrate their IP which is then stored on the blockchain and can be used across games including their already selling product called the PlayTable (www.playtable.com).
The team just paid out $250 ad-hoc rewards to their S-Tier node holders, not part of the VIMPool rewards which will be released soon paying out 5% every 2 weeks of all $EHrTs spent in the gaming ecosystem.
A VIM can be described as Virtually Integrated Metadata which is the core of the 8Hours (www.8hoursfoundation.org) platform meta system that is built on VeChainThor blockchain and stores metdata such as data and transaction history and functions as a memory capsule, a collectible, a digital wallet (storing $EHrTs, the token) and a tool for game play and human connection. VIMS can also be linked to a physical object in the real world.
Partners
Advisors to the project include:
  1. Glen Schofield - Prolific name in AAA game industry, 3x Call of Duty, grossing $1B+
  2. Sean Barger - Gaming industry veteran who has published over 55 titles, most notably "Tetris"
  3. Kris Alexander - Chief Strategist at Akami, Built business from $0 to $100M+
  4. Jateen Parekh - First employee worked on the Kindle project. Co-founded Jelli and was acquired by the largest media company, iHeartMedia.
  5. Shen Bo - Founding partner of Fenbushi. He is with Bitcoin and DACs. He first worked with Shanghai Huaji Internet Holding as CEO
  6. Kai Huang - Co-creator of the multi-billion dollar Guitar Hero franchise, and co-founder of RedOctane.
  7. Ray Hatoyama - Ex-Pokemon advisor, Ex-Hello Kitty CEO and director of LINE and Mitsubishi
  8. Michael Katz - with 25 years experience in the video game entertainment sector. Industry experience includes Mattel, Coleco, (Donkey Kong and Pacman), Atari’s video game division, President of SEGA Entertainment USA.
Competitors:
enjin coin is more of a market place to buy gaming items whereas 8Hours aims to store your gaming life/history on an NFT which is unique and can contain special colored tokens/companions which add to the value of it and utilized across games on any device where a partner has integrated their IP.

From an AMA with CEO John Dempsey of 8Hours Foudation, this stood out for me: "we're under NDA for several major companies with big household name brands. These are companies that everyone is familiar with and we can flood their communities with our EHrTs and VIMs. We can't name any right now, but these titles are under development. We've already worked with huge board game brands like Asmodee for Catan and Ticket to Ride. Our partnership deals are being made to create revenue, which we are feeding back into the ecosystem to create more and more value. Larger IPs are being signed which aren't board games, but a greater firt for EHrTs and the VIM economy in general. We do work with smaller indie firms, too, for the creation of unique content (over a dozen developers have submitted / created games for PlayTable)

Circulating Supply - 1,854,037,961
Max Supply - 10,000,000,000
Market Cap - $27,549,886
submitted by Doges_Best_Friend to CryptoMoonShots [link] [comments]

I bought $1k of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018. Result? Down -79%

I bought $1k of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018. Result? Down -79%

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2018 - Month Twenty-Nine - Down -79%
See the full blog post with all the tables here.
tl;dr - Cardano wins May, BTC still way ahead, ETH solidly in second place, NEM (anyone still remember NEM?) still in basement. Markets going up despite world on fire. 3 x $1k investments in crypto in 2018, 2019, 2020 are down -7% compared to the US stock market. Word.

Month Twenty-Nine – Down 79%

While not quite as strong as April, May was undeniably a strong month overall, especially with the last minute push that saw Bitcoin climb over the $10k mark. Although BTC (and the market overall) has fallen in the last few days while I’ve been compiling these updates, we saw almost every 2018 Top Ten crypto end the month of May higher than where it started.

Question of the month:

The Bitcoin halving took place on May 11th, 2020 at 7:23 PM UTC. Since the first Bitcoin block was generated in 2009, how many halving events have occurred?
A) One B) Three C) Five D) None of the above
Scroll down for the answer.

Ranking and May Winners and Losers

Half of our 2018 Top Ten group were on the move in May. Cardano made the most upward progress, climbing two positions to #11. IOTA picked up rose one spot in the standings to #24 as well. On the other side, NEM keeps slipping, losing three spots to #30. Dash and Stellar also dropped two positions each in May.
The overall drop out rate remains at the 50% mark (meaning half of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out). NEM, Dash, IOTA, Cardano, and Stellar have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tezos, Tether, and BSV.
May Winners – Massive month for ADA, up an impressive +62%. That’s about what Cardano gained last month, so, yeah, Cardano is having a great spring. IOTA also had a solid month, up +28%.
May LosersXRP lost about -4% making it the worst performing of this group in May.
How has your favorite crypto fared over the first 29 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment? Most monthly wins (7): Bitcoin. Most monthly losses (5) is a now tie between Stellar and NEM. All cryptos have at least one monthly win and Bitcoin stands alone as the only crypto that hasn’t lost a month (although it came close in January 2020 when it gained “only” +31%).

Overall update – BTC still way ahead, ETH firmly in second place, NEM worst performing.

Bitcoin made up more ground in May, now down -23% since January 2018. The last time we saw this price level to end a month was August 2019. The initial $100 investment is now worth about $77.
BTC is still well ahead of the field and Ethereum is firmly in second place. This may feel like a foregone conclusion at this point, but for context, long time 2018 Top Ten Experiment followers will note that this has not always been the case. Just a little over a year ago for example, BTC was second place behind Stellar.
NEM (down -95%) is in last place. That initial $100 investment in NEM? Now worth $4.74.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The overall crypto market added about $35B in May 2020, back near August 2019 levels. This is down about half from January 2018 when the market was worth roughly $575B.

Bitcoin dominance:

Another flat month for Bitcoin dominance, which hasn’t moved at all in the last three months.
For context, the range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2018 has been wide: a high of 70% BitDom in September 2019 and a low of 33% BitDom in February 2018.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2018:

The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio gained about $20 bucks in May 2020, back near where it was at the end of February. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return about $205, down -79% from January 2018.
Here’s the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month:
The streak of nine consecutive months down at least -80% was finally broken in May. Just barely (at -79%), but hey, I’ll take it. July 2019 was the last time the 2018 Top Ten finished a month in the negative seventies. What about the negative sixties? That level hasn’t been seen in about two years.
Painful stuff. What about the follow on Experiments? Let’s see:
So overall? Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $3,104‬.
That’s up about +3.5% for the combined portfolios. Better than a few months ago (aka the zombie apocalypse) where it was down -24%, but not yet back at January (+13%) or February (+6%) levels.

Comparison to S&P 500:

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The stock market (as measured by the S&P) continued to recover in May. It’s pretty amazing with all that’s going on in the world, but the market is already back up where it was in February 2020. The initial $1k investment into crypto on New Year’s Day 2018 would have gained about $140 had it been redirected to the S&P.
This is where it gets interesting. Taking the same drop-$1,000-per-year-on-January-1st approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments would yield the following:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$140
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$220
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: -$50
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,310.
That is up over+10% since January 2018, compared to the $3,104 value (+3.5%) of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
That’s about a 7% difference in favor of the stock market. Last month, there was only a 3% difference. The month before, the gap was 13%.

Implications/Observations:

No news here: the 2018 Experiment’s focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos has not and has never been a winning approach when compared to the overall market. The total market cap is down -51% from January 2018 compared to the -79% for the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten. This of course implies that I would have done a bit better if I’d picked different cryptos – but much better than if I’d put all my eggs in NEM‘s -95% basket, for example. To reiterate, at no point in this experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty-nine months compared to the market overall.
In the following two Top Ten experiments, it’s a slightly different story. There are a few examples of this approach outperforming the overall market in the parallel 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment. For the most recent 2020 group, this approach had outperformed the overall market 100% of the time…until this month.

Conclusion:

The Bitcoin halving turned out to be a non event and markets continue to steadily rise despite riots in the US and a global pandemic. We’re almost half way through a very strange year. As the world changes, what will crypto’s place be in the new normal?
Final word: Please take care of yourselves, your families, and your communities. Be excellent to each other.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.

And the Answer is…

B) Three
Bitcoin’s third halving event took place May 2020.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Decentr ($DEC) - foundational cross-chain and cross-platform DeFi protocol

  1. SUMMARY
Decentr is a protocol designed to make blockchain/DLT mainstream by allowing DeFi applications built on various blockchains to “talk to each other”. Decentr is a 100% secure and decentralised Web 3.0 protocol where users can apply PDV (personal data value) to increase APR on $DEC that users loan out as part of of our DeFi dLoan features, as well as it being applied at PoS when paying for stuff online. Decentr is also building a BAT competitor browser and Chrome/Firefox extension that acts as a gateway to 100% decentralised Web 3.0
Allows DeFi Dapps to access all Decentr’s dFintech features, including dLoan, dPay. Key innovation is that the protocols is based on a user’s ability to leverage the value of their data as exchangeable “currency”.
  1. KEY CONCEPTS

  1. REVENUE MODEL
A fee is charged for every transaction using dPay whereby an exchange takes place between money (fiat and digital) and data, and vice versa, either as part of DeFi features or via a dApp built on Decentr. They are launching pilot programmes in the following industries:
  1. Banking/PSP Industry: On Product launch, due to Decentr’s powerful PSP connections (including the worlds #2 PSP by volume), a medium-scale pilot program will be launched, which will seed the network with 150,000 PSP customers in primarily the Spanish/LAC markets, generating revenue from day one.
  2. “Bricks and Mortar” Supermarket/Grocery Industry: Decentr aims to ensure the long-term competitiveness of “bricks and mortar” supermarkets against online-only grocery retailers, such as Amazon, by a) building secure tech that allows supermarkets to digitise every aspect of their supply chains and operational functions, while b) allowing supermarkets to leverage this incredibly valuable data as a liquid asset class. Expected revenue by Year 5: $114Mn per year.
  3. Online Advertising Industry: Decentr’s 100% decentralised platform credits users secure data with payable value, in the form of PDV, for engaging with ads. The Brave browser was launched in 2012 and in 8 years has reached over 12 million monthly active users, accented by as many as 4.3 million daily active users.
  4. TOKEN $DEC AND SALE
Decentr recently complete their token sale on a purchase portal powered by Dolomite where they raised $974,000 in 10 minutes for a total sale hardcap of 1.25M. The $DEC token is actively trading on multiple exchanges including Uniswap and IDEX. Listed for free on IDEX, Hotbit, Hoo, Coinw, Tidex, BKex. Listed on CoinGecko and Coinmarketcap. Listed on Delta and Blockfolio apps.
➡️ Circulating supply: 61m $DEC.
➡️ Release schedule and token distribution LINK -> NO RELEASE UNTIL 2021.
➡️Contract Address - 0x30f271C9E86D2B7d00a6376Cd96A1cFBD5F0b9b3
➡️Decimals - 18, Ticker - DEC
➡️Uniswap link: https://uniswap.info/pai0x3AEEE5bA053eF8406420DbC5801fC95eC57b0E0A
⭐️ HOW TO BUY VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iloAiv2oCRc&feature=youtu.be
$DEC Token utility:
A tradeable unit of value that is both internal and external to the Decentr platform.A unit of conversion between fiat entering and exiting the Decentr ecosystem.A way to capture the value of user data and combines the activity of every participant of the platform performing payment (dPay), or lending and borrowing (dLend), i.e a way to peg PDV to tangible/actionable value.Method of payment in the Decentr ecosystem.A method to internally underwrite the “Deconomy.
  1. NOTABLE SUPPORTERS
Simon Dedic - chief of Blockfyre: https://twitter.com/scoinaldo/status/1283787644221218817?s=20https://twitter.com/scoinaldo/status/1283719917657894912?s=21
Spectre Group Pick : https://twitter.com/SPECTREGRP/status/1284761576873041920https://twitter.com/llluckyl/status/1283765481716015111?s=21
Patrons of the Moon/Lil Uzi: https://t.me/patronsofthemoon/6764
CryptoGems: https://twitter.com/cryptogems_com/status/1283719318379925506?s=09t
tehMoonwalker pick who is a TOP 5 influencer per Binance:https://twitter.com/tehMoonwalkestatus/1284123961996050432?s=20https://twitter.com/binance/status/1279049822113198080
Holochain was one of their earliest supporters and they share a deep connection (recently an AMA was conducted in their TG group): https://medium.com/@DecentrNet/decentr-holochain-ama-29d662caed03
  1. UPCOMING NEWS
--------------------------------------------
  1. RESOURCES:
Website: https://decentr.net
Telegram: https://t.me/DecentrNet
Medium: https://medium.com/@DecentrNet
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DecentrNet
Whitepaper: https://decentr.net/files/Decentr_Whitepaper_V1.4.pdf
Technical Whitepaper: https://decentr.net/files/Decentr_Technical_Whitepaper_Data_As_Economic_Currency.pdf
Recent Articles:
⚡️- https://medium.com/@DecentrNet/decentr-token-sale-metrics-and-distribution-483bb3c58d05
⚡️- https://medium.com/@DecentrNet/how-decentrs-defi-dloan-function-benefits-dec-holders-97ff64a0c105
⚡️- https://medium.com/@DecentrNet/3-vertical-revenue-streams-decentr-is-targeting-4fa1f3dd62de
⚡️- https://medium.com/@DecentrNet/brave-browser-the-good-the-bad-and-the-fundamentally-misguided-8a8593b0ff5b
⚡️- https://medium.com/@DecentrNet/how-decentrs-dfintech-replaces-swift-sct-inst-clearing-house-and-other-payment-solutions-78acacbb4c3f
Chad Gang STRONG Community: https://t.me/decentrtrading
Community News Channel: https://t.me/chadnews
Recent Uniswap trades: https://t.me/dectrades
Wallet holder tracker: https://t.me/DEC_WALLETS_COUNT
submitted by ldd999 to CryptoMoonShots [link] [comments]

BitcoinBCH.com accidentally publishes on-chain proof that they fake BCHs adoption metrics. Post to r/btc gets deleted and OP is now permanently banned.

Everybody who has posted this on btc has been banned according to modlog. Total of 9 users so far. Don't post this on btc or you will get banned. If you get banned comment on this thread or PM me.

May 2020:

According to btc modlogs, mc-78 has been banned because he questioned the April report with this comment.

According to btc modlogs, BCH4TW has been banned because he questioned the April report with this comment.

March 2020:

According to btc modlogs, bch4god has been banned because he questioned the February report with this comment.

According to btc modlogs, ISeeGregPeople has been banned because he linked to this thread in his comment.

February 2020:

According to btc modlogs, whene-is-satoshi has been banned because he linked to this thread in his comment.

January 2020:

According to btc modlogs, cryptokittykiller's post has been removed for linking to this thread.

According to btc modlogs, bashcalf has now been banned for linking to this thread.

According to btc modlogs, EnterLayer2 has now been banned for this post pointing out that this thread has reached 1000 upvotes.

This article was posted by bitcoinsatellite on btc here. Once it reached frontpage it got deleted and OP was banned from btc and bitcoincash as a result.

Disclaimer: I am not and have never been affiliated with any of the mentioned parties in a private or professional matter.
Presumably in an attempt to smear a local competitor, Hayden Otto inadvertently publishes irrefutable on-chain proof that he excluded non-BCH retail revenue to shape the "BCH #1 in Australia" narrative.
  • Scroll down to "Proof of exclusion" if you are tired of the drama recap.
  • Scroll down to "TLDR" if you want a summary.

Recap

In September 2019, BitcoinBCH.com started publishing so called monthly "reports" about crypto retail payments in Australia. They claimed that ~90% of Australia's crypto retail revenue is processed via their own HULA system and that ~92% of all crypto retail revenue happens in BCH.
They are aggregating two data sources to come up with this claim.
One is TravelByBit (TBB) who publishes their PoS transactions (BTC, LN, ETH, BNB, DASH, BCH) live on a ticker.
The other source is HULA, a newly introduced POS system (BCH only) and direct competitor to TBB run by BitcoinBCH.com - the same company who created the report. Despite being on-chain their transactions are private, not published and not verifiable by third parties outside BitcoinBCH.com
Two things stood out in the "reports", noted by multiple users (including vocal BCH proponents):
  • The non-BCH parts must have tx excluded and the report neglects to mention it (the total in their TBB analysis does not match what is reported on the TBB website.)
  • The BCH part has outliers included (e.g. BCH city conference in September with 35x the daily average)
The TBB website loads the historic tx data in the browser but hides transactions older than 7 days from being displayed, i.e. you can access more than 7 days worth of data if you understand JavaScript and can read the source code (source).

Hayden Otto's reaction

In direct response to me publishing these findings on btc, Hayden Otto - an employee at BitcoinBCH.com and the author of the report who also happens to be a moderator of /BitcoinCash - banned me immediately from said sub (source).
In subsequent discussion (which repeated for every monthly "report" which was flawed in the same ways as described above), Hayden responded using the same tactics:
"No data was removed"
"The guy is straight out lying. There is guaranteed no missing tx as the data was collected directly from the source." (source)
"Only data I considered non-retail was removed"
"I also had these data points and went through them to remove non-retail transactions, on both TravelbyBit and HULA." (source)
He admits to have removed non-BCH tx by "Game Ranger" because he considers them non-retail (source). He also implies they might be involved in money laundering and that TBB might fail their AML obligations in processing Game Ranger's transactions (source).
The report does not mention any data being excluded at all and he still fails to explain why several businesses that are clearly retail (e.g. restaurants, cafes, markets) had tx excluded (source).
"You are too late to prove I altered the data"
"[...] I recorded [the data] manually from https://travelbybit.com/stats/ over the month of September. The website only shows transactions from the last 7 days and then they disappear. No way for anyone to access stats beyond that." (source)
Fortunately you can, if you can read the website's source code. But you need to know a bit of JavaScript to verify it yourself, so not an ideal method to easily prove the claim of data exclusion to the public. But it laters turns out Hayden himself has found an easier way to achieve the same.
"The report can't be wrong because it has been audited."
In response to criticism about the flawed methodology in generating the September report, BitcoinBCH.com hired an accountant from a regional Bitcoin BCH startup to "audit" the October report. This is remarkable, because not only did their reported TBB totals still not match those from the TBB site - their result was mathematically impossible. How so? No subset of TBB transaction in that month sums up to the total they reported. So even if they excluded retail transactions at will, they still must have messed up the sum (source). Why didn't their auditor notice their mistake? She said she "conducted a review based on the TravelByBit data provided to her", i.e. the data acquisition and selection process was explicitly excluded from the audit (source).
"You are a 'pathetic liar', a 'desperate toll', an 'astroturf account' and 'a total dumb ass' and are 'pulling numbers out of your ass!'"
Since he has already banned me from the sub he moderates, he started to resort to ad hominems (source, source, source, source).

Proof of exclusion

I published raw data as extracted from the TBB site after each report for comparison. Hayden responded that I made those numbers up and that I was pulling numbers out of my ass.
Since he was under the impression that
"The website only shows transactions from the last 7 days and then they disappear. No way for anyone to access stats beyond that." (source)
he felt confident to claim that I would be
unable to provide a source for the [missing] data and/or prove that that data was not already included in the report. (source)
Luckily for us Hayden Otto seems to dislike his competitor TravelByBit so much that he attempted to reframe Bitcoin's RBF feature as a vulnerability specific to TBB PoS system (source).
While doublespending a merchant using the TBB PoS he wanted to prove that the merchant successfully registered the purchase as complete and thus exposed that the PoS sales history of TBB's merchants are available to the public (source), in his own words:
"You can literally access it from a public URL in the Web browser. There is no login or anything required, just type in the name of the merchant." (source)
As of yet it is unclear if this is intentional by TBB or if Hayden Ottos followed the rules of responsible disclosure before publishing this kind of data leak.
As it happens, those sale histories do not only include the merchant and time of purchases, they even include the address the funds were sent to (in case of on-chain payments).
This gives us an easy method to prove that the purchases from the TBB website missing in the reports belong to a specific retail business and actually happened - something that is impossible to prove for the alleged HULA txs.
In order to make it easier for you to verify it yourself, we'll focus on a single day in the dataset, September 17th, 2019 as an example:
  • Hayden Otto's report claims 20 tx and $713.00 in total for that day (source)
  • The TBB website listed 40 tx and a total of $1032.90 (daily summary)
  • Pick a merchant, e.g. "The Stand Desserts"
  • Use Hayden's "trick" to access that merchants public sale history at https://www.livingroomofsatoshi.com/merchanthistory/thestanddesserts, sort by date to find the 17th Sep 2019 and look for a transaction at 20:58 for $28. This proves that a purchase of said amount is associated with this specific retail business.
  • Paste the associated crypto on-chain address 17MrHiRcKzCyuKPtvtn7iZhAZxydX8raU9 in a blockchain explorer of your choice, e.g like this. This proves that a transfer of funds has actually happened.
I let software aggregate the TBB statistics with the public sale histories and you'll find at the bottom of this post a table with the on-chain addresses conveniently linked to blockchain explorers for our example date.
The total of all 40 tx is $1032.90 instead of the $713.00 reported by Hayden. 17 tx of those have a corresponding on-chain address and thus have undeniable proof of $758.10. Of the remaining 23, 22 are on Lightning and one had no merchant history available.
This is just for a single day, here is a comparison for the whole month.
Description Total
TBB Total $10,502
TBB wo. Game Ranger $5,407
TBB according to Hayden $3,737

What now?

The usual shills will respond in a predictive manner: The data must be fake even though its proof is on-chain, I would need to provide more data but HULA can be trusted without any proof, if you include outliers BCH comes out ahead, yada, yada.
But this is not important. I am not here to convince them and this post doesn't aim to.
The tx numbers we are talking about are less than 0.005% of Bitcoin's global volume. If you can increase adoption in your area by 100% by just buying 2 coffees more per day you get a rough idea about how irrelevant the numbers are in comparison.
What is relevant though and what this post aims to highlight is that BitcoinBCH.com and the media outlets around news.bitcoin.com flooding you with the BCH #1 narrative are playing dirty. They feel justified because they feel that Bitcoin/Core/Blockstream is playing dirty as well. I am not here to judge that but you as a reader of this sub should be aware that this is happening and that you are the target.
When BitcoinBCH.com excludes $1,000 Bitcoin tx because of high value but includes $15,000 BCH tx because they are made by "professionals", you should be sceptical.
When BitcoinBCH.com excludes game developers, travel businesses or craftsmen accepting Bitcoin because they don't have a physical store but include a lawyer practice accepting BCH, you should be sceptical.
When BitcoinBCH.com excludes restaurants, bars and supermarkets accepting Bitcoin and when pressed reiterate that they excluded non-retail businesses without ever explaning why a restaurant shouldn't be considered reatil, you should be sceptical.
When BitcoinBCH.com claims the reports have been audited but omit that the data acquisition was not part of the audit, you should be sceptical.
I expect that BitcoinBCH.com will stop removing transactions from TBB for their reports now that it has been shown that their exclusion can be provably uncovered. I also expect that HULA's BCH numbers will rise accordingly to maintain a similar difference.
Hayden Otto assumed that nobody could cross-check the TBB data. He was wrong. Nobody will be able to disprove his claims when HULA's BCH numbers rise as he continues to refuse their release. You should treat his claims accordingly.
As usual, do your own research and draw your own conclusion. Sorry for the long read.

TLDR

  • BitcoinBCH.com claimed no transactions were removed from the TBB dataset in their BCH #1 reports and that is impossible to prove the opposite.
  • Hayden Otto's reveals in a double spend attempt that a TBB merchant's sale history can be accessed publicly including the merchant's on-chain addresses.
  • (For example,) this table shows 40 tx listed on the TBB site on Sep 17th, including their on-chain addresses where applicable. The BitcoinBCH.com report lists only 20 tx for the same day.
  • (Most days and every months so far has had BTC transactions excluded.)
  • (For September, TBB lists $10,502 yet the report only claims $3,737.
No. Date Merchant Asset Address Amount Total
1 17 Sep 19 09:28 LTD Espresso Lightning Unable to find merchant history. 4.50 4.50
2 17 Sep 19 09:40 LTD Espresso Binance Coin Unable to find merchant history. 4.50 9.00
3 17 Sep 19 13:22 Josh's IGA Murray Bridge West Ether 0x40fd53aa...b6de43c531 4.60 13.60
4 17 Sep 19 13:23 Nom Nom Korean Eatery Lightning lnbc107727...zkcqvvgklf 16.00 29.60
5 17 Sep 19 13:24 Nom Nom Korean Eatery Lightning lnbc100994...mkspwddgqw 15.00 44.60
6 17 Sep 19 14:02 Nom Nom Korean Eatery Binance Coin bnb1w5mwu9...552thl4ru5 30.00 74.60
7 17 Sep 19 15:19 Dollars and Sense (Fortitude Valley) Lightning lnbc134780...93cpanyxfg 2.00 76.60
8 17 Sep 19 15:34 Steph's Cafe Binance Coin bnb124hcjy...ss3pz9y3r8 57.50 134.10
9 17 Sep 19 19:37 The Stand Desserts Binance Coin bnb13f58s9...qqc7fxln7s 18.00 152.10
10 17 Sep 19 19:59 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc575880...48cpl0z06q 8.50 160.60
11 17 Sep 19 20:00 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc575770...t8spzjflym 8.50 169.10
12 17 Sep 19 20:13 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc202980...lgqp5ha8f4 3.00 172.10
13 17 Sep 19 20:21 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc577010...decq7r4p05 8.50 180.60
14 17 Sep 19 20:24 Fat Dumpling Lightning lnbc217145...9dsqpjjr6g 32.10 212.70
15 17 Sep 19 20:31 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc574530...wvcpp3pcen 8.50 221.20
16 17 Sep 19 20:33 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc540660...rpqpzgk8z0 8.00 229.20
17 17 Sep 19 20:37 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc128468...r8cqq50p5c 19.00 248.20
18 17 Sep 19 20:39 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc135220...cngp2zq6q4 2.00 250.20
19 17 Sep 19 20:45 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc574570...atcqg738p8 8.50 258.70
20 17 Sep 19 20:51 Fat Dumpling Lightning lnbc414190...8hcpg79h9a 61.20 319.90
21 17 Sep 19 20:53 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc135350...krqqp3cz8z 2.00 321.90
22 17 Sep 19 20:58 The Stand Desserts Bitcoin 17MrHiRcKz...ZxydX8raU9 28.00 349.90
23 17 Sep 19 21:02 The Stand Desserts Bitcoin 1Hwy8hCBff...iEh5fBsCWK 10.00 359.90
24 17 Sep 19 21:03 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc743810...dvqqnuunjq 11.00 370.90
25 17 Sep 19 21:04 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc114952...2vqpclm87p 17.00 387.90
26 17 Sep 19 21:10 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc169160...lpqqqt574c 2.50 390.40
27 17 Sep 19 21:11 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc575150...40qq9yuqmy 8.50 398.90
28 17 Sep 19 21:13 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc947370...qjcp3unr33 14.00 412.90
29 17 Sep 19 21:15 The Stand Desserts Binance Coin bnb1tc2vva...xppes5t7d0 16.00 428.90
30 17 Sep 19 21:16 Giardinetto Binance Coin bnb1auyep2...w64p6a6dlk 350.00 778.90
31 17 Sep 19 21:25 The Stand Desserts BCH 3H2iJaKNXH...5sxPk3t2tV 7.00 785.90
32 17 Sep 19 21:39 The Stand Desserts Binance Coin bnb17r7x3e...avaxwumc58 8.00 793.90
33 17 Sep 19 21:47 The Stand Desserts BCH 32kuPYT1tc...uFQwgsA5ku 18.00 811.90
34 17 Sep 19 21:52 The Stand Desserts BCH 3ELPvxtCSy...4QzvfVJsNZ 36.00 847.90
35 17 Sep 19 21:56 The Stand Desserts Lightning lnbc677740...acsp04sjeg 10.00 857.90
36 17 Sep 19 22:04 The Stand Desserts BCH 38b4wHg9cg...9L2WXC2BSK 54.00 911.90
37 17 Sep 19 22:16 The Stand Desserts Binance Coin bnb14lylhs...x6wz7kjzp5 18.00 929.90
38 17 Sep 19 22:21 The Stand Desserts BCH 3L8SK3Hr7u...F3htdSPxfL 90.00 1019.90
39 17 Sep 19 22:30 The Stand Desserts Binance Coin bnb19w6tle...774uknv57t 5.00 1024.90
40 17 Sep 19 22:48 The Stand Desserts BCH 3Qag8c4UYg...9EYuWzGjhs 8.00 1032.90
submitted by YeOldDoc to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Nov. 2019 Update)

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Nov. 2019 Update)
EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for Two Years (2018 & 2019) - Month Twenty-Three - Down 85%
Full blog post with all the tables
**NOTE 1** - I'm on the fence whether or not to repeat the experiment yet again in 2020 with the new Top Ten. The problem is that there's been almost no movement: unless something drastic changes in December, it will be the exact same group of cryptos as the 2019 Top Ten minus Tron and plus Binance Coin. Tracking almost the same group, in the same way, for similar prices isn't very inspiring. I have some other ideas, but very open to suggestions: if you have any good ideas, please share them in the comments below. **END NOTE 1**
**NOTE 2** - I usually like to release the two posts a day apart, but I'll be spacing out the Top Ten 2018 and the Top Ten 2019 reports a bit more as readers have mentioned they've been removed by the mods (no offence taken, mods - the content is similar, I assume the posts are being removed because they're seen as identical. **END NOTE 2**
tl;dr - After a positive bounce in October, the cryptoverse is back to the summer's downward trajectory. Every crypto was down in November. Cardano performed the best (or least horribly), Dash lost the month for the first time since the experiment began nearly two years ago. Overall, Bitcoin is still well ahead. 60% of the 2018 Top Ten cryptos has lost at least 90% of their January 2018 value. NEM continues to be the absolute worst performer.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018/2019 crypto space. I’m trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. I try not to take sides or analyze, but rather report and document in a detached manner letting the numbers speak for themselves.
I have also started a parallel project: on January 1st, 2019, I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) into the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019. Spoiler alert: the 2019 Experiment makes for much happier reading.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment two years. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly. Compare loosely to the 2019 Top Ten Experiment.

Month Twenty-Three - Down 85%

After a strong October bounce, the 2018 Top Ten portfolio reverted to downward trajectory of the summer months. While all cryptos in the experiment were either in the green or flat last month, the opposite was true in November as each crypto ended the month solidly in the red.

Ranking and November Winners and Losers

There was no upward movement in November: every crypto either held onto its position or slid. After slipping three slots last month, Dash fell two more places in November and has now fallen to #22 and out of the Top Twenty for the first time since the beginning of the experiment. For the second straight month, IOTA dropped two places and now is in danger of joining Dash outside the Top Twenty. Bitcoin Cash and NEM also fell one position each, ending November at #5 and #28 respectively.
November Winners - Although it lost -11% in November, Cardano handily outperformed its peers. NEM finished in second, "only" down -15% on the month.
November Losers - Dash had a rough month, losing -28% of its value and dropping out of the Top Twenty. November also marks the first time since January 2018 that Dash ended a month at the bottom. Bitcoin Cash followed close behind Dash, finishing -27% in November.
For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses during the first 23 months of this experiment. Most monthly wins (5): Bitcoin. Most monthly losses (5): Stellar. All cryptos have at least one monthly win. Up until last month, the only two coins never to lose a month were Bitcoin and Dash. Thanks to a Dash's dismal November, Bitcoin now stands alone as the only crypto that hasn't lost a month.

Overall update – Bitcoin still well ahead. 60% of the 2018 Top Ten cryptos have lost at least -90% of their January 2018 value, NEM still absolute worst performer.

Although down -45% since January 2018, Bitcoin is still miles ahead of the rest of the field. Litecoin and Ethereum are virtually tied for second place, down -79%.
NEM has performed the absolute worst (currently down -96%) but has plenty of company at the bottom: six out of the ten cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten are down at least 90%: NEM, Cardano, Dash, IOTA, Ripple, and Bitcoin Cash. My initial $100 investment in NEM is worth just $3.83.
Additionally, 40% of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out, specifically NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Cardano. They have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tether, and BTCSV.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The crypto market gave up its October gains and then some as $50B was shed in November. The overall market cap now back to the $198B mark, last seen in May 2019. Since January 2018, the total market cap is down -66%.

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance decreased slightly in November. For context, the range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2018 has been quite wide: a high of 70% in September 2019 and a low of 33% in February 2018.

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:

The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio lost -$42 in November. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return $150, down -85%.
The 2019 Top Ten Experiment is doing better. If I cashed that experiment out today, that $1,000 initial investment would return $1,100, a +10% gain. Full November report to come. In the meantime, here's the October update.
Taken together, here's the bottom bottom line: after a $2000 investment in both the 2018 and the 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios would be worth $1,250.
That's down -37.5%.

Implications/Observations:

As always, the experiment's focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos continues to be a losing approach. While the overall market is down -%66 from January 2018, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -85% over the same period. This of course implies that I would have done a bit better if I'd picked a different group of cryptos.
At no point in this experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty-three months compared to the market overall.
I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 is now up +17.5% since the beginning of 2018. My initial $1k investment into crypto would have yielded about +$175 had it been redirected to the S&P.

Conclusion:

After a bounce in October, it seems like we're back to our previously scheduled programming of downward movement. One month to go in 2019, let's see what happens.
A note: although I'm planning on continuing to track both the 2018 and 2019 Top Ten Cryptos next year, I'm undecided on whether or not to repeat the experiment yet again in 2020. Please do leave your suggestions and ideas in the comments below.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel project where I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of a new set of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Oct. 2019 Update)

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Oct. 2019 Update)
[ EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for Two Years (2018 & 2019) - Month Twenty-Two - Down -81%]
Full blog post with all the tables
tl;dr - Thanks to some good news out of China, October produced gains which snapped a three month losing streak. $1000 investment in Top Ten cryptos on January 1st, 2018 is now worth about $192. Bitcoin maintains overall leader position followed by Litecoin then Ethereum. Take the two Top Ten experiments together, I'm down -21%.
**NOTE** - I usually like to release the two posts a day apart, but I'll be spacing out the Top Ten 2018 and the Top Ten 2019 reports a bit more as readers have mentioned they've been removed by the mods (no offence taken, mods - the content is quite similar, I assume the posts are being removed because they're seen as identical. **END NOTE**

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018/2019 crypto space. I’m trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.
I have also started a parallel project: on January 1st, 2019, I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) into the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019. Spoiler alert: the 2019 Experiment makes for much happier reading.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment two years. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly. Compare loosely to the 2019 Top Ten Experiment.

Month Twenty-Two - Down 81%

Thanks to some positive news out of China, October decisively broke a three month losing streak for the 2018 Top Ten portfolio. All cryptos in the experiment were either up or flat this month, a welcome change from summer's downward trend.

Ranking and October Winners and Losers

Although the market as a whole gained, a few of our 2018 Top Ten coins had trouble keeping up. IOTA and NEM each dropped two places to #18 and #27, respectively. Dash slid three slots, and now teeters on the edge of the Top Twenty. On the positive side Bitcoin Cash gained one position in the rankings, climbing to the four spot.
October Winners - Bitcoin Cash rebounded nicely after a dismal September finishing +29% up on the month. Ripple and Stellar had solid months as well, ending October at +16% and +14% respectively.
October Losers - Only IOTA lost value this month, down -1%. Along with NEM and Dash, the three were basically flat in October.
For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first 22 months of this experiment. Most monthly wins (5): Bitcoin. Most monthly loses (5): Stellar. All cryptos have at least one monthly win. The only two coins never to lose a month? Bitcoin and Dash.

Overall update – Bitcoin far ahead of peers. Four worst performers down over -90% each, NEM still in basement.

Bitcoin is still miles ahead of the pack maintaining a 40+ percentage point lead over second place Litecoin and third place Ethereum. This isn't even the widest lead Bitcoin has held since I started the experiment nearly two years ago: August 2019's +50% lead is still the record.
Looking through my past reports, poor NEM has been stuck in the basement all year. Since January 2019 is has been the experiment's worst overall performer. NEM is currently down -96% followed by Cardano, Dash, and IOTA all down over -90% since January 1st, 2018. My initial $100 investment in NEM is worth just $4.49.
40% of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out, specifically NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Cardano. They have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tether, and BTCSV.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

Breaking a three month losing streak, crypto ended October in positive territory, up about +$26B by month's end. The overall market cap is sitting around the $248B mark, rebounding to September 2019 levels. Since January 2018, the total market cap is down -57%.
If you're looking for a silver lining, followers of my 2019 Top Ten Experiment will note that there has been an increase of +74% in total crypto market cap since the beginning 2019.

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance ticked down slightly in October, but no major shift from last month. For context, the range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2018 has been quite wide: a high of 70% in September 2019 and a low of 33% in February 2018.

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:

After three straight months of loses, the portfolio gained a modest $17 in October. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return $192, down nearly -81%.
The 2019 Top Ten Experiment is doing a bit better. If I cashed that experiment out today, that $1,000 initial investment would return $1,387, a +39% gain. Full October report to come.
Taken together, here's the bottom bottom line: after a $2000 investment in both the 2018 and the 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios would be worth $1,579.
That's down about -21%.

Implications/Observations:

As always, the experiment's focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos continues to be a losing approach. While the overall market is down -%57 from January 2018, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -81% over the same period.
At no point in this experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty-two months compared to the market overall.
I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 is now up +15.2% since the beginning of 2018. My initial $1k investment into crypto would have yielded about +$152 had it been redirected to the S&P.

Conclusion:

Thanks to the news out of China, October ended up breaking the streak of three consecutive months of downward movement for crypto. Again, this shows that unpredictability is the norm in crypto: we seemed on track to continue the downward trend until the end of the year. With two months left in the year, will the October gains hold?
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel project where I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of a new set of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2018 - Month 28 Update (Down -82%)

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2018 - Month 28 Update (Down -82%)
https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-28/
https://preview.redd.it/fadknmsjg5x41.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3a2de76c643f957d1b6f1b2f1b1ca09840988e9
See the full blog post with all the nerdy tables here.
tl;dr - Stellar dominates April, all coins in the green. BTC still way ahead overall, ETH reclaims a distant second place, and NEM (anyone remember NEM?) still in basement. 2018 Top Ten down -82% since Jan. 2018. When taken together, all three experiments (I repeated the experiment for 2019 and 2020) are basically even with S&P 500 since Jan 2018. More details that you probably care about below and stay safe out there.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on the 1st of January 2018. The result? The 2018 Top Ten portfolio ended the year down 85%, my $1000 worth only $150. I repeated the experiment on the 1st of January 2019 with the new 2019 Top Ten cryptos, then again in 2020. Think of the Top Ten Experiments as a lazy man’s Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, but hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole – or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018, 2019, and 2020 crypto space. I am trying to keep this project simple/accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. I try not to take sides or analyze, but rather attempt to report in a detached manner letting the numbers speak for themselves. This experiment is designed to be documentary in nature, describing a specific period in cryptocurrency history.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 2018, 2019, and 2020. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

Month Twenty-Eight – Down 82%

Welcome back from the brink. While March saw the experiment enter full zombie apocalypse mode, the crypto market recovered bigly (or big league?) in April: every crypto finished in the green by at least double digit percentage gains.

Ranking and April Winners and Losers

Some ups, some downs, a good deal of movement. IOTA and NEM fell one position each down to #25 and #27 respectively. Although it seems like an eternity, remember these were the #7 and #8 ranked coins just a little over two years ago. On the upside, Cardano and Dash both climbed one position, while Stellar clawed back two spots, once again knocking on the door of the Top Ten at #11.
The overall drop out rate remains at the 50% mark (meaning half of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out). NEM, Dash, IOTA, Cardano, and Stellar have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tezos, Tether, and BSV.
April WinnersStellar dominated April, up an impressive +75%. Cardano finishes in second place, up +63% for the month.
April Losers – Every cryptocurrency finished April in positive territory, but NEM (+12%) and Bitcoin Cash (+15%) lagged behind the rest of the field.
For the overly competitive: below is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses in the first 28 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment. Most monthly wins (7): Bitcoin. Most monthly losses (5): Stellar. All cryptos have at least one monthly win and Bitcoin now stands alone as the only crypto that hasn’t lost a month (although it came close in January 2020), when it gained “only” +31%).

Overall update – BTC still way ahead, ETH reclaims second place, NEM reclaims last place.

Bitcoin made up a lot of ground this month, moving -50% since January 2018 last month to -33% at the end of April. BTC is still well ahead of the field. This may feel like a foregone conclusion at this point, but for context, long time 2018 Top Ten Experiment followers will note that this has not always been a given. Just a little over a year ago, for example, BTC was second place behind Stellar.
Same goes for the 2019 and the 2020 Top Ten Experiments: BTC is not always at the top.
Ethereum broke the tie with Litecoin for second place this month, down -70% since January 2018. A similar situation at the bottom: NEM (down -96%) is now alone in last place. That initial $100 investment in NEM? Now worth $4.46.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The overall crypto market added about $63B in April 2020, basically getting back to late February levels. It is now down -57% from January 2018.

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance basically stayed put this month. For context, the range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2018 has been wide: a high of 70% BitDom in September 2019 and a low of 33% BitDom in February 2018.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2018:

The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio gained about $50 bucks in April 2020, back near where it was at the end of February. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return about $183, down -82% from January 2018.
Here’s the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month:
April 2020 is now the ninth consecutive time the portfolio has ended the month down at least -80%.
For comparison, the 2019 and 2020 Top Ten Experiments are solidly in positive territory:
Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $2,969‬.
That’s down about -1% for the combined portfolios. Definitely better than last month (aka the zombie apocalypse) where it was down -24%, but not yet back at January (+13%) or February (+6%) levels.

Comparison to S&P 500:

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. April 2020 saw a large rebound in the stock market. Although not quite back up to end of February levels, the S&P added over +14% back this month. It is now +6% since the start of 2018. The initial $1k investment into crypto would have gained about $60 had it been redirected to the S&P.
This is where it gets interesting. Taking the same drop-$1,000-per-year-on-January-1st approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments would yield the following:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$60
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$130
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: -$120
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,070.
That $3,070 is up about +2% since January 2018, compared to the $2,969 value (-1%) of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
That’s a only a 3% difference. Last month the gap was 13%.

Implications/Observations:

The 2018 Experiment’s focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos has never been a winning approach when compared to the overall market. The total market cap is down -57% from January 2018 compared to the -82% for the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten. This of course implies that I would have done a bit better if I’d picked different cryptos – but better if I’d put all my eggs in NEM‘s -96% basket, for example. But at no point in this experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty-eight months compared to the market overall.
In the other two experiments, it’s a slightly different story. There are a few examples of this approach outperforming the overall market in the parallel 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment. For the most recent group, this approach has been 100% successful so far: each of the first four months of the 2020 Experiment show that focusing on the Top Ten beats the overall market.

Conclusion:

Although we’re not nearly out of the woods yet, countries and relaxing restrictions and markets, including the cryptosphere, are bouncing back. Will COVID-19 drive people to or from crypto? What happens if we get hit by a second wave of COVID-19. And how will the approaching Bitcoin halving effect markets in May?
Final word: second waves of COVID-19 are definitely possible. Please take care of yourselves, your families, and your communities. Keep up the social distancing, wear a mask, and wash your hands. Be careful out there.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.
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Zombie Apocalypse Edition - I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (March 2020 Update)

Zombie Apocalypse Edition - I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (March 2020 Update)
2018 \"Index Fund\" EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies of 2018 - Mar 2020/Month Twenty-Seven Update - Down 87%
See the full blog post with all the tables here.
tl;dr - take care of yourselves, your families, and your communities. Keep up the social distancing, bend the curve, wash your hands. Be careful out there. And - a truly insane month. Despite the market meltdown, crypto has under-performed the market since January 2018 by quite a bit. But if you measure from Jan 2019 or Jan 2020 it's a different story.

Month Twenty-Seven – Down 87%

Welcome to the special COVID/Zombie Apocalypse version of the update. An all red month, but, meh, this is cypto, we’re used to it.

Ranking and March Winners and Losers

For such a crazy month, there wasn’t much movement with this group. For the second month in a row, Cardano fell two positions and Bitcoin Cash slipped one slot. NEM was the only crypto to climb, up one position in March. Always got to take the opportunity to report something positive about NEM!
The overall drop out rate is still at 50% mark (meaning half of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out). NEM, Dash, IOTA, Cardano, and Stellar have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tezos, Tether, and BSV.
March WinnersBitcoin squeaked out a victory in March, although BTC was basically in a three way tie this month with XRP and Dash. All were down -23%.
March Losers – In an all red month, ETH and Cardano did especially poorly, down -38% and -33% respectively.
Below is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses in the first 27 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment. Most monthly wins (7): Bitcoin. Most monthly losses (5): Stellar. All cryptos have at least one monthly win and Bitcoin now stands alone as the only crypto that hasn’t lost a month (although it came close in January 2020), when it gained “only” +31%).

Overall update – BTC far ahead, ETH and LTC virtually tied for second place, IOTA and NEM virtually tied for last place.

Although down -50% from January 2018, Bitcoin is still well ahead of the field. Ethereum and Litecoin are almost tied for second place, down -81% and -82% respectively.
While NEM technically remains in the basement, IOTA is knocking at the door. Both are down -96%, and IOTA is now only a few cents off in total return.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The overall crypto market lost about $60B in March 2020 and is now down -68% from January 2018.

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance bounced up about +1.5% in March, something we’ve seen time and time again over the course of the experiment when the market bleeds. For context, the range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2018 has been quite wide: a high of 70% in September 2019 and a low of 33% in February 2018.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2018:

The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio lost about $53 bucks in March 2020. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return about $133, down -87% from January 2018. This isn’t quite the low point for the 2018 Top Ten (the portfolio was down -88% in January 2019) but pretty close.
See, here’s the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month:
A sea of red. The closest the 2018 Top Ten group has come to breaking even was after the very first month, when the portfolio was down “only” -20%. March 2020 is now the eighth consecutive time the portfolio has ended the month down at least -80%.
The 2019 and 2020 Top Ten Experiments are still in positive territory, but not by much:
Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $2,267‬.
After finally, at sweet long last, ending the first few months of 2020 in positive territory for the combined portfolios (January up +13% and February up +6%), that’s down about -24% total. Thanks coronavirus.
Alright, but it’s the end of the world as we know it, everything’s tanking. How does this compare to traditional markets?

Comparison to S&P 500:

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. March 2020 was not a great month for the S&P: it lost over -20% of its value this month and is currently at the lowest point since the experiment began in January 2018: -8% since the start of 2018. The initial $1k investment into crypto would have lost me about -$80 had it been redirected to the S&P.
Taking the same drop-$1,000-per-year-on-January-1st approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments would yield the following:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: -$80
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: -$10
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: -$230
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $2,680.
That’s down about -11% compared to -24% with the Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
That’s a 13% difference. Last month the gap was only 1%.

Implications/Observations:

The experiment’s focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos has never been a winning approach when compared to the overall market. The total market cap is down -68% from January 2018 compared to the -87% for the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten. This of course implies that I would have done a bit better if I’d picked different cryptos.
At no point in this experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty-seven months compared to the market overall.
There are a few examples of this approach outperforming the overall market in the parallel 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment, but these cases are few and far between. In contrast, each of the first three months of the 2020 Experiment show that focusing on the Top Ten beats the overall market.

Conclusion:

With COVID affecting the entire globe and no end in sight, the next few months will be tough. We should have a better idea whether crypto is seen as a gold-like safe haven during tough times, as some have suggested.
Final word: take care of yourselves, your families, and your communities. Keep up the social distancing, bend the curve, wash your hands. Be careful out there.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: bears drive the crypto market movement

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: bears drive the crypto market movement

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: bears drive the crypto market movement
The negative sentiment continues to reign in the crypto asset market, as indicated by technical and fundamental analyzes. Thus, the drop in demand for many top altcoins caused by the bitcoin correction has already led to the fact that the bears have reached many targets located in the support area. At the same time, several interesting events took place on the crypto market over the past working week. On July 15, it became known that the Chinese authorities will test the digital yuan on the largest supplier of groceries and food delivery Meituan Dianping. The work of the Chinese CBDC is already being tested by McDonald’s corporations, Starbucks and DiDi, the largest taxi aggregator in the Middle Kingdom. On June 16, Samsung announced the start of a partnership with Stellar, within which the developments of the blockchain project will be integrated into the Samsung Blockchain Keystore and Samsung Galaxy smartphones. Also, one cannot fail to note the large-scale hacking of the social network Twitter. On the night of July 15–16, unknown attackers gained access to 130 accounts of prominent businessmen, politicians and opinion leaders. As a result, fake Elon Musk, Changpen Zhao, Bill Gates and Barack Obama posted messages calling for bitcoins to be sent to them, which allowed them to collect 12.86 BTC.

Bitcoin

On the four-hour chart, bitcoin develops a very clear movement along the levels from the point of view of technical analysis. After retesting the resistance at $9500 and the lower boundary of the “Triangle” pattern, BTC quotes rushed down to the first target at $9150. If in the coming days the price consolidates below the support level, then in the short term we should expect the development of a downtrend. The closest targets for sellers will be $9000 and $8760 (38.2% correction at Fibonacci levels). At the same time, the persistence of negative sentiment in the stock market will be a signal for the digital currency market, which will continue to fall until the beginning of autumn and the recovery of the business cycle.
In the long term, this may lead to a decline to supports at $8330 and $8050. But in order to push the price lower, the bears will need to exert enormous forces. Moreover, from these levels, whales will begin to gain new positions, which will push the bitcoin price up and launch a medium-term growth trend. It will confirm its departure above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) line and the closing of Japanese candlesticks above $9500. In the long term, this will make it possible to achieve medium-term goals in the form of clusters of $9,900- $10,000 and $10,400- $10,500.

BTC / USD chart, four-hour timeframe

So far, the first cryptocurrency also cannot form a global trend, and this has led to the fact that Bitcoin continues to consolidate movement within the $8900 cluster (50% correction at Fibonacci levels) — $9580. BTC quotes have already dropped below the $9,300 level, which could lead to sales up to $8,900. In the future, we should expect Bitcoin to test the targets of $8600 and $8220, where the 200-day moving average (MA) line and the lower border of the technical analysis model “Triangle” (on the chart below, its borders are marked in orange).
For a short time, BTC quotes may even drop to supports at $7400 and $6800, but the forecast for the price rebound back up and the formation of a long-term upward trend seems more likely. This will allow Bitcoin to reach the $10,000 and $10,500 levels, and their subsequent breakout will allow the asset to rush to the $11,000, $11,200- $11,300 and $11,800 levels by the end of the year.

BTC / USD chart, daily timeframe

Ethereum

The altcoin market is also developing neutral dynamics so far, but more and more signals appear on the charts that speak in favor of the development of a downward movement.
Big capital is not yet ready to acquire digital assets at a price that has grown strongly since March.
Ether price develops along the $233 level (11.4% Fibonacci retracement line) and within the framework of consolidation within the $220- $251 range. The drop in the total demand for digital assets will lead to a decrease in the cost of ether towards the first target in the form of consolidation of $195- $200, where the 200-day MA line is located. The further course of trading will be determined by the appearance or absence of demand for cryptocurrencies. In the long term, by the end of the year, we should expect a move above $251 to the resistance areas of $280, $300 and $320.

ETH / USD chart, daily timeframe

Litecoin

On the daily chart, Litecoin continues to consolidate above the support boundaries in the form of a $40- $42 cluster, which takes the form of the Andrews Pitchfork technical analysis model. The development of the downward dynamics will lead to the fact that the cost of LTC will drop to $36 and $30.60. But in the medium term, we should expect the quotes to move above the 200-period MA line, which passes in the resistance area of $47.45. Overcoming it in the coming months will allow LTC quotes to soar to the levels of $51.50 (38.2% correctional level along the Fibonacci lines), $56.80, $60.80, $65 and $70.

LTC / USD chart, daily timeframe

Bitcoin Cash

The Bitcoin fork began to decline after the breakout and a very clear retest of the lower boundary of the technical analysis model “Triangle” (on the chart below, its boundaries are marked in pink). At the same time, the Bitcoin Cash quotes remain within the framework of a broader consolidation in the form of the “Horizontal Channel” $200- $272. However, the priority trading scenario remains a decline in Bitcoin Cash to the $200 level. There is also a high probability of updating the March lows in the $170 and $150 regions.
However, in the months ahead, expect BCH to move above $272, where the 200-day SMA line passes, paving the way to the $305, $356 and $400 levels.

BCH / USDT chart, daily timeframe

XRP

XRP is also under the influence of bears, leading to a decline towards the resistance level at $0.2050. In the coming weeks, the asset may test the support at $0.18, where the lower border of the Descending Triangle model lies. The development of the downward movement will allow XRP to test the support at $0.16 and $0.1470.
But in the medium term, a signal for a reversal of the downtrend may appear in the event of a break above the 200-day MA line passing at the level of $0.2360. If this happens, then in the second half of 2020 XRP will be able to reach important targets at the levels of $0.2540, $0.27, $0.2860 and $0.30.

XRP / USD chart, daily timeframe

Binance Coin

Binance Coin tried to break the bottom of the Ascending Triangle, but failed. The current quotes are supported by the 200-day SMA line and the boundaries of the $15.30- $16 area. Maintaining the downward momentum will allow BNB to rush down to the supports at $13.80 and $11.50.
But the most likely scenario looks like a final consolidation above the 200-day MA. This will open the way to the current resistances at $17 and $18.14, as well as the first target in the form of a $19.36- $20 cluster. Testing of the $21.30 and $23.50 levels is also expected in the coming months.

BNB / USDT chart, daily timeframe
Now more and more crypto assets are showing a willingness to succumb to bearish pressure, which will send quotes into a short decline that will last over the next few weeks. But by the end of the year, we should expect the activity of whales, which will begin to massively buy cryptocurrencies. This will undoubtedly send their value into a long-term upward rally.
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Cryptocurrency technical analysis: neutral market dynamics before a powerful movement

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: neutral market dynamics before a powerful movement

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: neutral market dynamics before a powerful movement
This week, most stock market assets showed a neutral movement, which did not give investors clear signals about the need to take bull or bear positions. This trend was reflected in the cryptocurrency market. So, bitcoin continues to move below the key level of $10,000 and is unlikely to overcome it in the coming days. At the same time, it is worth noting a number of positive factors for the development of the price dynamics of crypto assets. Experts from one of the largest US banks, JPMorgan, presented a review according to which in March, bitcoin successfully passed its first stress test “mostly positive”. It also became known that the Binance crypto exchange launches quarterly BTC / USD futures contracts with leverage up to 125x, which will be available to users of the Binance Futures platform. This positive news can return to the market bulls that are waiting for signals for a successful entry.

Bitcoin

From the point of view of technical analysis, on a four-hour chart, BTC quotes are preparing for the development of a powerful movement. This is facilitated by going beyond the current consolidation between support at $9150 and resistance at $9500, in the area of which the line of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) runs. In the future, due to reduced liquidity, traders may begin to open bearish positions provided that bitcoin drops below $9150. In this scenario, BTC can go to targets at $8760 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and $8330.
A deeper decline is still unlikely, because in case of growth of capitalization of the stock market, part of the funds will be directed to the cryptocurrency market. But in the future months, we can expect quotes to go above the key level of $9500, which will allow Bitcoin to rush up to the target clusters of $9900– $10,000 and further to $10,400– $10,500.

https://preview.redd.it/zk56mog26h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=adf137775c35da072775c21acff5ccac26c73fbd
BTC / USD chart, daily timeframe.

Ethereum

Ethereum at the moment broke support at around $233, where the 11.4% Fibonacci retracement line runs, which allowed the altcoin to reach the important mark of $220. The next target for sellers will be the consolidation of $195– $200, below which is the line of the 200-day SMA. From this area, the ether will be ready to resume the upward movement to the first target of $251, overcoming of which will be a key condition for the continued development of the upward impulse. In this case, the goals for Ethereum will be the levels of $280, $300 and $320.

https://preview.redd.it/fd3at9986h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=2cb20e04b3cd82649cc762f48b6760ba38d59f7e
Chart ETH / USD, daily timeframe.

Litecoin

Litecoin confidently reached the goal in the form of the upper boundary of the cluster $40– $42. However, further growth attempts are hampered by the 200-day SMA line, which is located at around $45. A strong impulse to sell can send LTC quotes down to the levels of $36 and $30.60.
However, it should be borne in mind that these marks are excellent opportunities for a set of positions for the purchase in the long term. In this case, the first target will be the level of $47.45. By the end of the year, traders will potentially be able to take profits at $52 (38.2% correctional level on the Fibonacci lines), $56.80, $60.80, $65 and $70.

https://preview.redd.it/31jo7rmf6h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf1d4fef4b8f68c97ba22bd84a56f392a030bd4f
LTC / USD chart, four hour timeframe.

Bitcoin cash

A bitcoin fork moves within the framework of the “Horizontal Channel” with borders of $200– $272. The asset is trying to gain a foothold above the level of $250 and the 200-day SMA line, which has become an important resistance for him. Going below $200 will cause BCH to drop to $170, and a break above $272 will provide an opportunity to take profits at $305, $356 and $400. Now trading Bitcoin Cash in the range of $200– $272 may bring more risk than profit, so the best strategy for conservative investors is to wait for going beyond this consolidation.

https://preview.redd.it/pjwco4ej6h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a2742d0e16e368335b485c9d135c618bc271d6d
BCH / USDT chart, four hour timeframe.

XRP

XRP further reduced volatility and went down beyond the boundaries of consolidation of $0.2050– $0.2360, which allowed to reach the target of $0.18 in the moment. Closing the daily candle below this mark will allow the bears to send the asset to $0.16 and $0.1470. However, a breakthrough of the $0.2360 level and the 200-day SMA line will allow XRP quotes to rush further to the target levels of $0.2540, $0.27, $0.2860 and $0.30.

https://preview.redd.it/0qainjxl6h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=057858229649d84b63611c8fdc78d67b8cb76f17
XRP / USD chart, daily timeframe.

Binance coin

Binance Coin quotes realized the forecast for the development of the downward movement in the region of the lower boundary of the region of $15.30– $16. But bears will need a lot of strength to overcome it, and if successful, they will be able to take profits at $13.80 and $11.50.
But in the long run, from these levels, the restoration of BNB quotes to the first
goals in the form of levels of $17 and $18.14 may begin. This scenario will be realized provided that an important mark of $16 is broken where the 200-day MA line passes. In the perspective of this year, whales may raise the value of the crypto asset of the Binance exchange to the goals of $19.36, $21.30 and $23.50.

https://preview.redd.it/l2devrqo6h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=6cff5b3c4d87de03fdd3f27074df500ac761bbb3
BNB / USDT chart, daily timeframe.
Top cryptocurrencies have recently shown a neutral trend, but it will not last long. Indeed, usually this is followed by a powerful movement of the crypto market, so traders should “fasten their seat belts” and prepare for active trading in the coming months.
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30+ Reasons Why Cryptocurrencies Are Worthless

1)It is possible to change the code through a miner vote or a fork and change the total supply or anything. DASH did it : they reduced the total supply from 84M to 18.9M a few years ago. They could also increase it to 999 Trillions if they wanted to so that millions of DASH are mined every week.

2)You can also fork bitcoin anytime , start over from 0 and claim it's the real bitcoin. (BCH , BSV , BTG , LTC , BCD etc)

3)Why would you pay $10,000 for a digital collectible unit called BTC when you can use BCH or TRX or LTC .. you name it. They work just as fine and cost less. There is no rarity like in gold.

4)Think of any amount you hold in ethereum as a gift card to use smart contracts on the ETH blockchain. Ridiculous. You’d rather hold a wal mart gift card or even simply cash.

5)Private keys may be bruteforced as we speak. Quintillions entries a second. When they’ll have enough bitcoins under control , they could move them all at once instantly.(At least 45,000 ETH have been stolen this way for now through ethereum bandit)SHA 256 is too old , bitcoin is 10 years old , it is not secure enough , quantum computing could potentially break it.

6)And that’s if people don’t find a way to create an infinite amount of coins to sell on exchanges.. it happened with monero , stellar , bitcoin , zcash , zcoin , eos , etc..

proofs :

“Bitcoin , Coindesk : “The Latest Bitcoin Bug Was So Bad, Developers Kept Its Full Details a Secret”an attacker could have actually used it to create new Bitcoin — above the 21 million hard-cap of coin creation — thereby inflating the supply and devaluing current bitcoins.”

Stellar : “Stellar Inflation: Glitch Leads to 2.25 Billion Extra XLM Printed”

Monero : “A bug in the Monero (XMR) wallet software that could enable fake deposits to exchanges has been recently brought to public attention through a Medium post”

Zcoin : Forged coins were created, but not exceeding 1% of the circulating supply. We will release further details on exact numbers when Sigma is released.

EOS : “Hackers Forge Billion EOS Coins to Steal Real Crypto From DEX “

Zcash : “Zcash Team Reveals It Fixed a Catastrophic Coin Counterfeiting Bug” etc..

7)Segwit , and especially Lightning network is a very complex technology and it will inevitably have flaws , bugs , it will be exploited and people will lose money. That alone can cause bitcoin to drop very low levels.

8)Then miners may be losing millions so they will stop mining , blocks may be so slow , almost no transaction will come though , and bitcoin may not have enough time to reach the next difficulty adjustement. This is reffered to as a death spiral. Then every crypto even those with no mining involved may crash hard.

9)Many crypto wallets are unsafe and have already caused people to lose all their investment , including the infamous “parity wallet”.

10)It is NOT trustless. you have to trust the wallet you’re using is not just generating an address controlled by the developper , you have to trust the node the wallet connects to is an honest node , you have to trust a Rogue state or organization with enough computing power will not 51% attack the network. etc..

11)Bitcoin is NOT deflationary. Bitcoins are created every blocks (roughly every 10 minutes) and you wil be dead by the time we reach the 21 million current hard cap.

12)Bitcoin price may artificially be inflated by Tether.

13)It’s an energy waste , an environmental catastrophy.

14)The only usecases are money laundering , tax evasion , gambling , buying on the dark net , evading sanctions and speculation.

15)Governments will ban it if it gets too big , and they have a big incentive to do so , not only for the obscure usecases but also because it threatens the stability of sovereign currencies. Trump could kill bitcoin with one tweet , force fiat exchanges to cease activity.

16)Most cryptos are scams , the rest are just crazy speculative casino investments.

17)It is pyramidal : early adopters intend to profit massively while last comers get crushed. That's not how money works. The overwhelming majority of crypto holders are buying it because they think they will be able to sell it to a higher price later. Money is supposed to be rather stable. That's why the best cryptocurrencies are USDT USDC etc..

18)The very few stores accepting bitcoin always have the real price in the local currency , not in bitcoin. And prices like 0.00456329 BTC are ridiculous !

19)About famous brokers listing bitcoin : they have to meet the demand in order to make money , it doesn't mean they approve it , some even short it (see interactive broker's CEO opinion on bitcoin)

20)People say cash is backed by nothing and losing value slowly , and yes it is very flawed , but there is a whole nation behind it , it's accepted everywhere , you can buy more things with it.

21)Everybody in crypto thinks that there will be a new bullrun and that then , they will sell. But because everybody thinks it will happen , it might not happen. The truth is past performance doesn’t indicate future performance and it is absolutely not guaranteed that there will ever be another bullrun. The markets are unpredictable.

22)Also BTC went from about $0.003 to the price it is today , so don’t think it’s cheap now.

23)There is no recourse if you’re scammed/hacked/made a mistake in the address etc. No chargebacks. But it might be possible to do a rollback (blockchain reorganization) to reverse some transactions. BSV did it.

24)In case of a financial crisis , the speculative assets would crash the most and bitcoin is far from being a non speculative safe heaven ; and governments might ban it to prevent fiat inflation to worsen.

25) Having to write down the private key somewhere or memorize it is a security flaw ! It’s insane to think a system like this will gain mass adoption.

26) The argument saying governments can not ban it because it is decentralized (like they banned drugs) doesn’t work for cryptos. First , drugs are much harder to find and much more expensive and unsafe because of the ban , and people are willing to take the risk because they like it. But if crypto is banned , value will drop too much , and if you can’t sell it for fiat without risking jail , goodluck to find a buyer. Fiat exchanges could close. Banks could terminate every crypto related bank account. And maybe then the mining death spiral would happen and kill all cryptos.

27) Crypto doesn’t exist. It’s like buying air. It’s just virtual collectibles generated by a code. Faguzzi, fugazzi, it’s a whazzie, it’s a whoozie.. it’s a.. fairy dust. It doesn’t exist. It’s never landed. It’s no matter, it’s not on the elemental chart. It… it’s not fucking real!

28) Most brilliant guys have come out and said Bitcoin was a scam or worthless. Including Bill Gates , Warren Buffet , The Wolf Of Wall Street…

29) Inflation is necessary for POW , BTC code will have to be changed to bypass the 21M cap or mining will die ! If BTC code is not changed to allow for miners to be paid reasonably , they will cease mining when the bitcoin block reward gets too low.Even monero understood it ,the code will have to be changed to allow for an infinite bitcoin supply (devaluating all current bitcoins) or the hash will decrease and the security of bitcoin will decrease dramatically and be 51% attacked

30) Don’t mix up blockchain and cryptos. Even blockchain is overrated. But when you hear this or that company is going blockchain , it doesn’t mean they support cryptocurrencies.

31) Craig Wright had a bitcoin mining company with Dave Kleinman (he died) and on january 1 2020 he claims he will be able to access the 1.1M BTC/BCH/BTG from the mining trust. He may or may not dump them on the market , he also said BTC had a fatal flaw and that by 2019 there will be no more BTC.

32) Hacks in cryptos are very common and usually massive. Billions of dollars in crypto have been stolen in the last 6 years. In may 2019 Binance was hacked and lost 7,000 BTC (and it’s far from being the biggest crypto hack).

33) Bitcoin was first. It's an ancient technology. Newer blockchains have privacy, smart contracts, distributed apps and more.Bitcoin is our future? Was the Model T the future of the automobile? (John Mc Afee)

34) IOTA investiguating stolen funds on mainnet. IOTA shuts down the whole network to deal with trinity wallet attack.

35) Compared to bitcoin other cryptos work just as fine and don't waste so much energy.

36 ) Everytime miners disagree on the updates it will create another version of bitcoin : problem of governance and legitimacy.

37) Cryptos are only legitimate if they act as a credit for a redeemable asset like USDT or gold backed coins.


While the native language of the writter is not english , I think you get the point and it doesn't make it any less relevant.
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Binance CEO Makes Rare Price Prediction—Says This Is When ... Binance Coin Whales, Is That A Mountain Range?  BNB Price Prediction (27 Jan 2020) How I Made +40% PROFIT Trading Bitcoin In 1 DAY ... Binance Buying CoinMarketCap & Why It's Great for Bitcoin Price Latest Cryptocurrency News  Bitcoin Analysis & Price ... Will the Bitcoin Price DUMP as soon as Binance re-opens? HOW TO DAYTRADE ALT COINS TO BITCOIN PRICE ACTION (Binance) $27 Binance Coin BNB Price Prediction (29 July 2019) MAJOR PRICE ACTION  Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Binance ... Bitcoin Price/Bitcoin News/Binance Latest Update

Disclaimer: The findings of the following article attempt to analyze the emerging patterns in the Binance Coin short-term market and its impact on the price. Bitcoin’s price has once again taken off and reached above $14,000. This surge replicated in the altcoin market has resulted in a change in the current trend. Binance Coin has […] Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped from 75 to 61 as Bitcoin was quite volatile the previous day, going as high as $13,250 and dropping to as low as $12,785. This could have spooked some traders and shifted sentiment from euphoria to a little less ecstatic. Binance Coin posted strong gains. IOTA exhibited a bearish divergence and failed to break out to the upside, and Synthetix exhibited a ... Binance Leveraged Tokens sind Kryptowährungen, in die du auf dem Binance-Spot-Markt gehebelt investieren kannst. Jeder gehebelte Token repräsentiert einen Basket mit Perpetual-Kontraktpositionen. Der Preis der Tokens widerspiegelt sowohl die Änderung des Nominalwerts der Perpetual-Kontraktpositionen im Basket als auch die gewählte Leverage. Binance cryptocurrency exchange - We operate the worlds biggest bitcoin exchange and altcoin crypto exchange in the world by volume Binance Coin price finds support for $27. Binance Coin likely to follow the market trend to retrace backwards. Bollingers Band shows extreme volatiliy despite uptrend. The Binance Coin price stooped below the $27 mark on the 19th of September, after observing a series of price fluctuations over the 24-hour trade. The coin traded between the ... Binance Coin is up 5.45% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #7, with a market cap of $4,178,467,593 USD. It has a circulating supply of 144,406,561 BNB coins and a max. supply of 176,406,561 BNB coins. The top exchanges for trading in Binance Coin are currently GokuMarket, Binance, Binance.KR, BitZ, and HBTC.

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